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CBN’s renewed focus on diaspora remittances: Ki ni big deal? – Toni Kan

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My friend, Paul, is Jamaican. He has a strong Jamaican twang that sometimes leaves me wondering what he is saying.

Paul and I met at our local pub in London and bonded over our mutual love for crossword puzzles. When he was about 12, his mother left Jamaica for the US and Paul’s life changed as he became a “barrel baby”.

The term “barrel children” was coined by Dr. Claudette Crawford-Brown, a lecturer at the University of the West Indies and it refers to children who receive food and clothes and money from parents who have migrated abroad in search of greener pastures.

Psychologists have spoken of the negative effect this can have on “barrel children” who may harbour feelings of abandonment but economists focus on the impact on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and wider economy because diaspora remittances from economic migrants are a huge source of economic empowerment for the people and country they leave behind.

In Nigeria we know of children, parents, spouses and sundry family members who make weekly visits to pick up funds sent by loved ones via Western Union or Moneygram.

Diaspora remittances were in focus in the last week of October in Washington as Yemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria made a series of disclosures and announcements on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.According to TheCable, Yemi Cardoso announced that the CBN has set a remittance inflow target of $1bn a month.

A few things are worthy of consideration regarding the announcement and disclosure. The volume of remittances has been on the rise since Yemi Cardoso took over at the CBN and implemented a few initiatives. One of which was the granting of approval in principle (AIP) to 14 new and eligible international money transfer operators (IMTOs) to trade on the official foreign exchange (FX) window through the implementation of a willing buyer-willing seller model. This enabled timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs thereby enhancing liquidity in Nigeria’s FX market.

diaspora remittance inflowIt has had a positive effect because in July the CBN reported that the country had recorded an all-time high of $553m. During the IMF/World Bank meetings the CBN governor announced that remittance inflows surged past $600m.

According to Cardoso, “When I was in Washington for the spring meetings, I called the different IMTOs and…we engaged with them extensively and understood what the problems were. I would say that when we started, the volumes that were going through the remittances were in the region of maybe about $200 million and as at the end of last month, we were almost $600 million.”

It is on the strength of this growth that Yemi Cardoso has set the seemingly high $1bn monthly diaspora remittance target. How realistic is that target and what will it mean for the Nigerian economy?

It is realistic because diaspora remittances have averaged $20bn annually over the past decade and as I noted in an earlier intervention, when the CBN is in the spotlight, discussions almost always resolve to the foreign exchange rate.

The managed float of the naira coupled with other measures introduced by the CBN are having some positive impact seen in the comparative stability of the naira relative to the green back, the checkmating of round tripping, removal of speculative trading and arbitrage and positive contraction in the gulf between the official and parallel market rates.

The CBN governor believes that with the naira competitive Nigerians in the diaspora are now eager and should be encouraged to invest. “Our currency has now become extremely competitive and cheap. So they see the opportunity of taking positions in assets and businesses back home.”

What the CBN governor is alluding to here is that since the dollar can now get more naira for those abroad, the time may be right to set up that water-making factory or agro-product processing plant because aside from oil and remittances and bonds, the country needs return of productive capacity to help buoy the value of the naira.

This case is being made with gusto by the CBN governor and his lieutenants as well as bankers and financial sector stakeholders who have joined the train.

The CBN governor was guest at an event on October 22 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC. Titled ““Strengthening Ties with Nigerians Abroad” A Conversation with Yemi Cardoso, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria” it afforded him an opportunity to share ongoing reforms at the apex bank and contextualize the need to change the perspective on remittances from a focus on consumption to investment.

That same message resonated at a forum which held a day earlier in Houston, Texas under the theme “Optimizing Remittances to Nigeria: A Vision for the Future”. The event “brought together members of the Nigerian diaspora, business leaders, investors, and top executives from Nigerian banks to explore strategic pathways for enhancing remittance flows, a vital component of Nigeria’s economic stability and growth.”

To boost remittance flows, enhance diaspora BVN enrolment and facilitate banking transactions in Nigeria for those in the diaspora, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) took advantage of the forum to introduce the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN), a new digital platform which simplifies Know Your Customer (KYC) verification for Nigerians in the diaspora and foreign investors.

The message was simple; remittances can be a strategic tool for promoting diaspora-led investments if we pay close attention to the pivotal role the Nigerian diaspora already plays in national development and direct a shift in focus. As Philip Ikeazor, Deputy Governor, Financial System Stability, CBN told his audience “We are looking at remittances going beyond remittances for consumption, but remittances for investment.”

But will $1bn monthly diaspora inflows make much of an impact? The answer is easy. Increased remittance inflows will provide more foreign exchange liquidity which will have a positive impact not just on the dollar supply side but on the overall economy. So, the key is to move from $1bn monthly to more.

19.1%, of their GDP down from 21.57%And to explain this I will return to my Jamaican friend and his country. Jamaica’s foreign exchange earnings come primarily from Tourism, Trade and Remittances. In 2023, remittances accounted for recorded in 2022

5.65% of GDP indicating an increase from 4.26%Nigeria on the other hand earns its foreign exchange mostly from oil. Then we have receipts from the non-oil sector from trade in goods and services, agro products and solid minerals. Oil earnings have dwindled in recent times thanks to a cocktail of issues that do not need elaboration. In 2023, diaspora remittance inflows accounted for recorded in the preceding year.

My focus on Jamaica which has a population of about 3m people may look like the proverbial apples to oranges comparison so let us look at diaspora remittances from the perspective of bigger low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

World Bank According to 2023 statistics from the “remittances to low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) grew an estimated 3.8% in 2023,” albeit lower than the previous year’s with a total value of “$669 billion.”

The same World Bank report also lists the top 5 remittance recipient countries in 2023 as India ($125 billion), Mexico ($67 billion), China ($50 billion), the Philippines ($40 billion), and Egypt ($24 billion). Nigeria came in at $20.52bn for 2023.

The fact that the announcement was made in America in Houston which boasts the largest Nigerian population in the US is significant because America remains the largest source of diaspora remittances and to put it in perspective; in 2022, of the 4.8 million Indian Americans in America, 3.1 million were immigrants meaning they had ties at home conversely Nigeria had a population of about 712,000 with about 392,811 of those born in Nigeria and with ties to home.

The point of these figures is to show the potential while underlining the fact that diaspora remittances can impact the economy positively when the right environment is created for those who have japa’d to cast their financial gaze home.

The second point is that while Cardoso has set a $1bn remittance inflow target per month there is the feeling that it is a modest target and that the figure would be exceeded if ongoing engagements continue and the measures put in place are sustained.

Migration and Development Brief 39To conclude let us look to a quote by DulipRatha, author of the report to help us understand why the renewed focus on remittances is a big deal.

“Remittances are one of the few sources of private external finance that are expected to continue to grow in the coming decade. They must be leveraged for private capital mobilization to support development finance, especially via diaspora bonds. Remittance flows to developing countries have surpassed the sum of foreign direct investment and official development assistance in recent years, and the gap is increasing.”

***Toni Kan is a PR expert and financial analyst.

 

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Christmas, Cash Scarcity and Attacks against CBN’s Proactive Stance – Toni Kan

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Let us look at a few figures……..

Nigeria’s population is put at a little over 200 million people while the UK population is about 68 million. This means that the Nigerian population is about three (3) times that of the UK.

As at June 2023, the UK banking system had about 49,421 Automatic Teller Machines and almost 2.3 million Point of Sales Terminals.

By contrast, the Nigerian banking system had a little over 22,600 ATMS according to TechCabal and is projected to reach 29,000 by 2029 according to Statista. Conversely, Nigeria boasted 1,665,664 POS terminals as at December 2022. Meanwhile, figures attributed to Inlaks, which is described as Nigeria’s biggest ATM operator, suggest that Nigeria needs at least 60,000 ATM machines to serve its population of over 200 million.

Where is all this going? Well to borrow a phrase from the comedian, Jeff Foxworthy; hold my beer, sir!

Those who know me well know what my favourite Igbo proverb is. It goes something like this in translation – “the disease that gives you warning, does not kill you!” It is a proverb that underlines the imperative of proactivity, what the Igbo people might call igba mbo.

So, I was really pleased when I read that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was taking a proactive step to ensure that there is no cash scarcity this Christmas.

Nigerians love cash and that love can become obsessive and reach fever pitch at festive periods. Have you been to Abeokuta during Ojude Oba? Or to Kano during the Durbar? Or Onitsha during Ofala? Those are regional festivities. So, you can imagine what happens at Christmas!

All efforts at driving a cashless policy and economy seem to collapse when festivities come around the corner and this year, the CBN was quick to take proactive action weeks before the festivities reach fever pitch. But the apex bank’s interventions seem to be having unintended consequences even though as at the time of writing this, the apex bank had put out three (3) different circulars and one press release around the issue.

First, is a not-so-surprising pushback from the banks and then a seeming lack of understanding by the general public no thanks to rampant mis-information.

The issue of cash scarcity around the Christmas period worsened under the sway of Godwin Emefiele at the CBN. The fall-out from the disastrous naira redesign he superintended over at the apex bank continues to haunt our banking vaults but Olayemi Cardoso and team are focused on making sure we turn that dark corner.

Let us begin with the first circular dated November 29, 2024: “Cash Availability Over the Counter in Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and Automated Teller Machines (ATMs).” The circular had two sections: DMBs were directed to ensure efficient cash disbursement to customers Over the Counter (OTC) with the CBN insisting that it will enforce the directive and ensure compliance.

Secondly, members of the general public were encouraged to report instances where they are unable to get cash Over the Counter or through ATMs. The CBN ended with a list of 37 email addresses and phone numbers across the 36 states and FCT for reporting issues.

On paper, it looked like Nigerians and the cash worries were all sorted this Christmas but it didn’t take time for the expected pushback to occur. News reports began to circulate of long queues at banks and of ATMs struggling to dispense more than N10,000. “NAN reports that long queues have emerged at ATM stands around the city as residents struggle to have access to cash…Meanwhile POS operators are currently taking advantage of the situation to demand exorbitant charges on transactions.”

While Nigerians were still trying to make sense of the reason behind the long queues, another report had an official of the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance, and Financial Institutions (ASBIFI) pointing fingers. According to the report, “ASSBIFI President, Olusoji Oluwole, told the Punch that “Banks have only two sources of cash: the CBN and retailers. The CBN has not met banks’ demands, and retailers often sell cash for profit, making it harder for banks to access funds.”

As if in response to the charge, the apex bank responded “with their full chest” as we say on social media with a December 13, 2024 circular – Updated Penalty on Inappropriate Cash Disbursement Practices by Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in which it condemned the “illicit flow of mint banknotes to currency hawkers and other unscrupulous economic agents that commodify naira bank notes thus impeding efficient and effective cash distribution to banks’ customers and general public.”

Giving bite to the circular the CBN said any bank found culpable of “facilitating, aiding or abetting, by direct actions or inactions, illicit flow of mint banknotes” would be fined N150m and then hit with the full weight of the relevant provisions of BOFIA 2020.

This time no pointing fingers were seen but the CBN was not done. Eager to completely squelch rumours around “the validity or lack thereof of the old ₦1000, ₦500, and ₦200 banknotes” the refusal of which was contributing to the long queues, the CBN issued a press release shutting it down: “The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has observed the misinformation regarding the validity of the old ₦1000, ₦500, and ₦200 banknotes currently in circulation….the CBN wishes to reiterate that the subsisting Supreme Court ruling granted on November 29, 2023, permits the concurrent circulation of all versions of the ₦1000, ₦500, and ₦200 denominations of the Naira indefinitely.”

The third circular from the CBN which it said was in line with its “ongoing efforts to advance a cash-less economy” seems to have hit a raw nerve among Nigerians who, as we have already noted, love their cash even though it is now an offence to spray the naira.

News outlets also seemed to also get it wrong. The CBN circular of December 17, 2024 did not put a limit on how much cash you and I can withdraw from banks. The limits imposed in the circular titled – CIRCULAR ON CASH-OUT LIMITS FOR AGENT BANKING TRANSACTIONS – are “for agency banking operations” and as reported by TheCable is among interventions intended to address “identified challenges, combat fraud and establish uniform operational standards across the industry.”

Now, can I have my beer back as I attempt to outline how easily well-intentioned policies are rubbished by that euphemistically named malady known as the “Nigerian factor”.

The ASBIFI official was quick to point fingers even though simple logic can show that Over the Counter cash scarcity and at ATMs has little to do with the CBN or its cash distribution operations but with our Nigerian any-how-ness.

Let’s consider this. How is it that banks cannot fill up 22,600 ATMS, most of which are within or in close proximity to their branches but can afford to give cash to 1.6m PS operators? Doesn’t this seem to suggest that someone is out to make sure that the ATMs don’t have cash while the PoS operators continue to make a killing?

And why does it seem right that Nigerians should continue to pay between N250 and N400 per N10,000 withdrawals to PoS operators when ATM charges are far lower at N35 and only after you have made multiple withdrawals from other bank ATMs?

Oh, bankers have said ATMs are difficult to maintain on account of several factors and this takes us back to the figures we shared from the UK. Of the 49,421 ATMs in the UK, “78% were free to use” during the period under reference. So, why do we always talk about maintenance when it comes to Nigeria? Imagine if we paid N10 per ATM transaction, wouldn’t that be better than paying N250 to a PoS operator for every N10,000 withdrawn?

And for context, in 2014, data on various e-payment channels indicated that Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) remained the most patronised payment mode in Nigeria accounting for 89.7% of all electronic transactions with PoS transactions accounting for just 4.58 per cent. Today, the reverse is the case and the question to ask remains; what changed? The answer has something to do with financial inclusion but that is a topic for another day.

As you ponder that poser, ask yourself why is it always difficult to get mint bank notes over the counter in the banks meanwhile, step into any event center and you will see some hawker waving bright new notes in your face. Surely, they don’t get those notes from the CBN.

When the CBN referenced the Supreme Court ruling granted on November 29, 2023 to the effect that the old notes are still legal tender, their X Formerly Twitter page was filled with bile. But what many are failing to contend with is that the current leadership is only trying to make sure the mess they inherited doesn’t get worse.

As we prepare for Christmas and the New Year the advice is simple; go to your bank and ask for your money or withdraw from the ATMs and if you suspect any funny business, email or call the hotlines provided by the CBN.

Say no to any-how-ness this yuletide.

 

Toni Kan is a PR expret and financial analyst.

 

 

 

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Aviation Minister Leads Delta APC Leadership To National Chairman, Advocates Unity Ahead of 2027 Elections

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The Honourable Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Olorogun Festus Keyamo SAN, today, led the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Delta State, to the National Chairman of the APC, His Excellency Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, at the APC National Headquarters in Abuja.

 

During the meeting, the Delta APC leaders briefed the National Chairman on the current state of the party in the state and the ongoing efforts to reconcile party members. They presented the report of the Reconciliation Committee, which has been approved by the Delta State APC State Working Committee (SWC) and earlier submitted to the National Chairman.

The delegation emphasized the importance of collaboration, stating that the era of a one-man leadership style in Delta APC is over. They reaffirmed their collective commitment to working as a united team to reposition the party and strengthen its prospects ahead of the 2027 general elections. This new direction was evident in the composition of the high-powered delegation that visited the National Chairman.

 

In his response, the National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, commended the Delta APC leadership for their efforts to foster unity and ensure the party’s victory in future elections. He assured them of his commitment to work with Delta APC leaders, including those absent from the meeting, to build a united and formidable front. During the meeting, Dr. Ganduje also spoke with Delta State APC Chairman, Elder Omeni Sobotie, who was unavoidably absent due to health reasons, and wished him a swift recovery following his recent surgery.

 

The delegation to the meeting comprised prominent leaders of the Delta APC, including: Olorogun O’tega Emerhor, OON-Founding Leader of APC in Delta State,

Elder Godsday Orubebe- Former Minister,

Senator Ede Dafinone,

Senator Joel Thomas-Onowakpo,

Rev. Francis Waive- Member, House of Representatives and

Hon. Victor Ochei-former Speaker, Delta State House of Assembly.

The meeting was concluded with a renewed sense of purpose among the Delta APC leaders and a shared commitment to repositioning the party for electoral success in 2027.

 

 

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Just In: Alleged N110.4billion Money Laundering: Yahaya Bello Begs Court: Spare me Landed Property in Maitama for Bail.

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A former governor of Kogi State, Mr. Yahaya Bello has pleaded with Justice Maryann Anenih of the Federal High Court sitting in Abuja to spare him the possession of a landed property in the Maitama district of Abuja as one of the conditions for bail.

 

Details later…

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