President Bola Tinubu has directed that Nigeria’s national flags be flown at half mast for seven days across the country to mourn the passing of the late Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Taoreed Lagbaja.

The late Army chief, who was appointed by Tinubu on 19 June 2023, was said to have passed away on Tuesday night after a prolonged illness.

The Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume, in a statement on Wednesday by his office Director of Information & Public Relations, Segun Imohiosen, said the president expressed regret over Lagbaja’s death.

Akume said, “President Bola Tinubu has expressed regret following the death of the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Taoreed Abiodun Lagbaja, after a brief illness at the age of 56.

“The President has directed that national flags be flown at half mast throughout the country for seven days in honour of the departed Army chief.

“He profoundly appreciates the services of the departed to the nation and wishes the family the fortitude to bear the great loss.”

Meanwhile, the Ministers of Defence, Mohammed Badaru and Bello Matawalle, have commiserated with the president, the military, and Lagbaja’s family over his death.

In a statement by the Ministry’s spokesperson, Henshaw Ogubike, the ministers described Lagbaja’s death as a great loss to his family, the Army, and the nation at large.

“The passing on to eternal glory shocked us at the Ministry of Defence, as our working relationship with him was commendable; he exhibited the spirit of camaraderie and cooperation with us in the discharge of our mandate.

“The late Chief of Army Staff contributed significantly to internal security operations across Nigeria and also exhibited a high level of professionalism.

“He will be greatly missed by the family, the military, and the nation, as he served the nation with commitment and dedication,” the statement added.

My friend, Paul, is Jamaican. He has a strong Jamaican twang that sometimes leaves me wondering what he is saying.

Paul and I met at our local pub in London and bonded over our mutual love for crossword puzzles. When he was about 12, his mother left Jamaica for the US and Paul’s life changed as he became a “barrel baby”.

The term “barrel children” was coined by Dr. Claudette Crawford-Brown, a lecturer at the University of the West Indies and it refers to children who receive food and clothes and money from parents who have migrated abroad in search of greener pastures.

Psychologists have spoken of the negative effect this can have on “barrel children” who may harbour feelings of abandonment but economists focus on the impact on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and wider economy because diaspora remittances from economic migrants are a huge source of economic empowerment for the people and country they leave behind.

In Nigeria we know of children, parents, spouses and sundry family members who make weekly visits to pick up funds sent by loved ones via Western Union or Moneygram.

Diaspora remittances were in focus in the last week of October in Washington as Yemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria made a series of disclosures and announcements on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.According to TheCable, Yemi Cardoso announced that the CBN has set a remittance inflow target of $1bn a month.

A few things are worthy of consideration regarding the announcement and disclosure. The volume of remittances has been on the rise since Yemi Cardoso took over at the CBN and implemented a few initiatives. One of which was the granting of approval in principle (AIP) to 14 new and eligible international money transfer operators (IMTOs) to trade on the official foreign exchange (FX) window through the implementation of a willing buyer-willing seller model. This enabled timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs thereby enhancing liquidity in Nigeria’s FX market.

diaspora remittance inflowIt has had a positive effect because in July the CBN reported that the country had recorded an all-time high of $553m. During the IMF/World Bank meetings the CBN governor announced that remittance inflows surged past $600m.

According to Cardoso, “When I was in Washington for the spring meetings, I called the different IMTOs and…we engaged with them extensively and understood what the problems were. I would say that when we started, the volumes that were going through the remittances were in the region of maybe about $200 million and as at the end of last month, we were almost $600 million.”

It is on the strength of this growth that Yemi Cardoso has set the seemingly high $1bn monthly diaspora remittance target. How realistic is that target and what will it mean for the Nigerian economy?

It is realistic because diaspora remittances have averaged $20bn annually over the past decade and as I noted in an earlier intervention, when the CBN is in the spotlight, discussions almost always resolve to the foreign exchange rate.

The managed float of the naira coupled with other measures introduced by the CBN are having some positive impact seen in the comparative stability of the naira relative to the green back, the checkmating of round tripping, removal of speculative trading and arbitrage and positive contraction in the gulf between the official and parallel market rates.

The CBN governor believes that with the naira competitive Nigerians in the diaspora are now eager and should be encouraged to invest. “Our currency has now become extremely competitive and cheap. So they see the opportunity of taking positions in assets and businesses back home.”

What the CBN governor is alluding to here is that since the dollar can now get more naira for those abroad, the time may be right to set up that water-making factory or agro-product processing plant because aside from oil and remittances and bonds, the country needs return of productive capacity to help buoy the value of the naira.

This case is being made with gusto by the CBN governor and his lieutenants as well as bankers and financial sector stakeholders who have joined the train.

The CBN governor was guest at an event on October 22 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC. Titled ““Strengthening Ties with Nigerians Abroad” A Conversation with Yemi Cardoso, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria” it afforded him an opportunity to share ongoing reforms at the apex bank and contextualize the need to change the perspective on remittances from a focus on consumption to investment.

That same message resonated at a forum which held a day earlier in Houston, Texas under the theme “Optimizing Remittances to Nigeria: A Vision for the Future”. The event “brought together members of the Nigerian diaspora, business leaders, investors, and top executives from Nigerian banks to explore strategic pathways for enhancing remittance flows, a vital component of Nigeria’s economic stability and growth.”

To boost remittance flows, enhance diaspora BVN enrolment and facilitate banking transactions in Nigeria for those in the diaspora, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) took advantage of the forum to introduce the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN), a new digital platform which simplifies Know Your Customer (KYC) verification for Nigerians in the diaspora and foreign investors.

The message was simple; remittances can be a strategic tool for promoting diaspora-led investments if we pay close attention to the pivotal role the Nigerian diaspora already plays in national development and direct a shift in focus. As Philip Ikeazor, Deputy Governor, Financial System Stability, CBN told his audience “We are looking at remittances going beyond remittances for consumption, but remittances for investment.”

But will $1bn monthly diaspora inflows make much of an impact? The answer is easy. Increased remittance inflows will provide more foreign exchange liquidity which will have a positive impact not just on the dollar supply side but on the overall economy. So, the key is to move from $1bn monthly to more.

19.1%, of their GDP down from 21.57%And to explain this I will return to my Jamaican friend and his country. Jamaica’s foreign exchange earnings come primarily from Tourism, Trade and Remittances. In 2023, remittances accounted for recorded in 2022

5.65% of GDP indicating an increase from 4.26%Nigeria on the other hand earns its foreign exchange mostly from oil. Then we have receipts from the non-oil sector from trade in goods and services, agro products and solid minerals. Oil earnings have dwindled in recent times thanks to a cocktail of issues that do not need elaboration. In 2023, diaspora remittance inflows accounted for recorded in the preceding year.

My focus on Jamaica which has a population of about 3m people may look like the proverbial apples to oranges comparison so let us look at diaspora remittances from the perspective of bigger low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

World Bank According to 2023 statistics from the “remittances to low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) grew an estimated 3.8% in 2023,” albeit lower than the previous year’s with a total value of “$669 billion.”

The same World Bank report also lists the top 5 remittance recipient countries in 2023 as India ($125 billion), Mexico ($67 billion), China ($50 billion), the Philippines ($40 billion), and Egypt ($24 billion). Nigeria came in at $20.52bn for 2023.

The fact that the announcement was made in America in Houston which boasts the largest Nigerian population in the US is significant because America remains the largest source of diaspora remittances and to put it in perspective; in 2022, of the 4.8 million Indian Americans in America, 3.1 million were immigrants meaning they had ties at home conversely Nigeria had a population of about 712,000 with about 392,811 of those born in Nigeria and with ties to home.

The point of these figures is to show the potential while underlining the fact that diaspora remittances can impact the economy positively when the right environment is created for those who have japa’d to cast their financial gaze home.

The second point is that while Cardoso has set a $1bn remittance inflow target per month there is the feeling that it is a modest target and that the figure would be exceeded if ongoing engagements continue and the measures put in place are sustained.

Migration and Development Brief 39To conclude let us look to a quote by DulipRatha, author of the report to help us understand why the renewed focus on remittances is a big deal.

“Remittances are one of the few sources of private external finance that are expected to continue to grow in the coming decade. They must be leveraged for private capital mobilization to support development finance, especially via diaspora bonds. Remittance flows to developing countries have surpassed the sum of foreign direct investment and official development assistance in recent years, and the gap is increasing.”

***Toni Kan is a PR expert and financial analyst.

The President Bola Tinubu government has officially terminated the N740billion contract awarded to Julius Berger Nigeria Plc for the rehabilitation of the Abuja-Kaduna section of the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano dual carriageway, citing delays and non-compliance with revised terms and scope.

The termination notice was issued by the Federal Ministry of Works in Abuja on November 4, 2024.

In a statement released by Mohammed Ahmed, Director of Press and Public Relations for the ministry, the government clarified that the decision stemmed from Julius Berger’s “stoppage of work and refusal to remobilize to site” despite directives to resume operations.

“The Federal Ministry of Works has issued a 14-day Notice of Termination to Messrs Julius Berger (Nig.) Plc for the rehabilitation of Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano dual carriageway in FCT, Kaduna, and Kano states, contract No.6350, Section I (Abuja-Kaduna),” the statement read.

Ahmed further explained that months of negotiations failed to produce results, leading to the ministry’s decision to end the contract.

This follows a series of management meetings within the ministry to address concerns over delays, cost reviews, and incomplete work on the critical northern highway.

The statement read, “The ministry has in the last 13 months been in constant talks with the company, in order to reach an amiable position on the said alignment but to no avail.

“Nigerians may wish to know that the Contract for the Rehabilitation of the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual carriageway, which was divided into three (3) Section was awarded to the company on 20th December, 2017and flagged off by the then Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, at an initial sum of N155.748,178,425.50 billion on 18th June, 2018.

Ahmed said, “Sections II (Kaduna – Zaria) and III (Zaria – Kano) were partially completed and handed over during the twilight of the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

“Since then it has been one variation and augmentation or the other and finally, the present minister of works directed the redesigning and re-scoping of the Section I of the contract.

“The alignment was divided into two with one phase redesigned to be on continuously reinforced concrete pavement, CRCP, while the remaining with asphaltic pavement.

“ Approval for Section I, Phase 1 for a length of 38 (thirty-eight) kilometres on the concrete pavement was given to Messrs Dangote Industries (Nig.) Ltd, while the remaining 127 (one hundred and twenty-seven) kilometres remained with the substantive contractor.

He said the Phase 1 was flagged off on October 17, 2024, with a 14-month completion period.

“Due to the stalemate of the contract and, most importantly, the desire of His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as encapsulated in the Renewed Hope Agenda infrastructure initiative, to see to the completion of this laudable project, also to alleviate the sufferings of Nigerians plying the road, the ministry re-scoped it and got the approval of the Federal Executive Council, FEC.

Ahmed explained that the award for the re-scoping and downward review of the contract for the rehabilitation of Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual Carriageway in FCT, Kaduna and Kano States, Contract No.6350, Section I (Abuja-Kaduna) in favour of Messrs Julius Berger (Nig.) Plc from the sum of N797,263,523,738.87 (seven hundred and ninety-seven billion, two hundred and sixty-three million, five hundred and twenty-three thousand, seven hundred and thirty-eight naira eighty-seven kobo) to N740,797,204,173.25 was granted by FEC on September 23, 2024, and conveyed to the company on October 3, 2024.

“As due to the socio-economic importance of the road as a vital artery connecting Abuja, the FCT to the north, the ministry conveyed the approval for a final offer on the Abuja-Kaduna dual carriageway to the company on October 23, 2024, stating that it should agree, in writing, to accept the reviewed contract sum of N740,797,204,173.25 within seven days or risk the termination of the said contract.

“It is a sad commentary on the company that rather than accepting the offer, they tinkered with the bills of quantities, as well as that of engineering measurements and evaluation via a letter to the ministry dated October 29, 2024. The company was summoned for a meeting with the Management of the Ministry, today (yesterday), November 4, 2024, but refused to show up, hence the termination of the contract based on effluxion of time and non- performance,” he added.