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Looking beyond CBN’s cocktail of policies to 2025 – Toni Kan

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Six months ago a friend I go on daily runs with took ill on a Monday evening. It was sudden and by the time I saw him hours later at the hospital, he was lying there very sick, very frail and hooked up to machines.

 

The diagnosis was sepsis and we were all surprised. The morning before he took ill, we had gone on a 6km run. That was 2km more than our usual but there was a reason. We had gone to a party on Saturday and some “damage” had been done. So that Monday morning we had agreed to run the “foolishness” out of our system.

 

Sepsis is a major killer in the UK and is described as “a life-threatening condition by The UK Sepsis Trust which says it “can lead to shock, multiple organ failure and even death if not recognised and treated promptly.”

 

Statistics from the NHS are more sobering. Sepsis “kills five people every hour and accounts for about 50,000 deaths per year in the UK alone.”

 

So, my friend was lucky to have “listened” to his body and gone to the A&E where he was prescribed a cocktail of drugs that included powerful antibiotics as well as hydrocortisone, vitamin C, thiamine and lots of intravenous fluids.

 

That incident came to mind as I read the Keynote Address delivered by Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria at the 59th Annual Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on November 29, 2024.

 

Nineteen pages long, it was expansive, insightful, comprehensive, wide-ranging, bold and visionary in acknowledging the myriad of issues they met on ground, the challenges encountered so far in fixing them and strategy for the future. It was like a Job Description and a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) rolled into one.

 

Reading through, the image that loomed before me was of my friend on that hospital bed. When we met in the morning, he was bubbly and rearing to go with none of us the wiser about the bacteria ravaging his system. By evening the bacteria had won and it would have been a different story if doctors had not given him that cocktail of medicines.

 

The financial system Yemi Cardoso and team met on ground was being ravaged by an unseen bacteria and leading to a system collapse. The prognosis was bad – high inflation, multiple exchange rates, unchecked subsidy and rampant arbitrage, lack of access to international capital markets, poor investor confidence, waning foreign portfolio inflows, declining exchange reserves and decreasing diaspora remittances, a huge FX backlog, excessive money supply growth at 13% annually, fiscal crisis from unprecedented Ways and Means advances to the FG of N22.7 trillion and many more.

 

Yemi Cardoso was like a doctor who came to the quick realization that urgent action was required to stem the tide and steer the financial ship to a safe port.

 

What he did, he told the CIBN, was attack with a cocktail of “targeted policies, transparent market operations, effective coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, and a commitment to rebuild trust.”

 

What did he think success would look like after this cocktail of policies has been implemented? Cardoso told his audience that what the CBN expects in 2025 and beyond is a regime that will see the CBN “stabilize the exchange rate, curb inflation, strengthen banks’ capital buffers, and foster an environment conducive to the success of both businesses and individuals.”

 

These are already happening and Olayemi Cardoso was not shy in pointing out areas where progress has been made.

 

External reserves which fell to $33.22bn in December 2023 have grown back to $40bn the highest level in 3 years and “the equivalent of eight months’ import cover.”

That is a reflection of rising investor confidence evident in the 72% growth in foreign portfolio inflows and increase in diaspora remittances from a monthly average of $300m to $600m with a monthly target of $1bn set by the CBN.

 

This is being buoyed by the integration of the Nigerian diaspora into our financial system by initiatives like the introduction of the non-resident BVN registration. At the time of writing this piece, news of an oversubscribed Eurobond issue of $2.2bn filtered out from the Debt Management Office (DMO).

 

The fiscal crisis from excessive Ways and Means which was the equivalent of almost 11% of our GDP in 2023 before Cardoso and team took over at the CBN has been ended with the backlog of over $7 billion in unfulfilled commitments cleared.

 

The FX market has been stabilized with a tightening contraction in the gap between the official and parallel markets and more sanity is expected with the take-off on December 2, 2024 of the electronic FX matching system. Analysts are already forecasting that the naira will end the year low.

 

A regime of transparency has led to regular and improved financial stability reports, balance of payments data, and FX market updates, data sharing, the launch of a new website and technology driven innovations intended to “strengthen the CBN’s credibility and public trust in our policies.”

 

Speaking at that dinner, Cardoso summarized his ultimate destination as “price and exchange rate stability, catalyze sustainable economic growth, and protect the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians.”

 

While all these are cause for cheer, challenges remain. The naira is still taking a beating something Cardoso has attributed to buyer’s desperation and a distorted view of the value of the naira relative to the greenback. This will hopefully be solved in 2025 and beyond by “the introduction of the electronic matching system” which “will correct these distortions by enhancing the price discovery process.”

 

Inflation remains a thorny issue at 33.88% despite efforts to “contain inflation and restore stability” by “raising the Monetary Policy Rate by 875 basis points to 27.5%”. The inflation target of 21.4% is yet to be achieved.

But Cardoso is upbeat: “Our tight monetary policy stance has altered the previous dire trajectory, and we expect a downward trend in 2025. Inflation remains unacceptably high, but the signs are encouraging, particularly given that the full effects of monetary policy typically take 6-9 months to impact the consumer sector.”

 

To conclude one must ask whether Cardoso and his team have factored in the coming of Donald Trump into their plans for 2025. As Cardoso noted in his keynote, the pandemic, global geopolitical tensions and inflation have had a deleterious effect on emerging markets in the form of “withdrawal of capital flows” thus “creating new challenges for economies like ours.”

 

Speaking further he noted that “Major central banks are gradually easing their monetary conditions and this shift is slowly reopening access to international capital markets for emerging economies.”

 

But for how long? Recent comments from Donald Trump in reaction to plans for de-dollarisation by the BRICS nations deserve attention from the CBN as the apex bank looks to the future.

 

This is important because in October this year, Nigeria formalized its romance with the BRICS bloc by becoming a partner as reported by The Punch. “BRICS has officially expanded its alliance, adding 13 new nations as partner countries, though not as full members…The countries are Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.”

 

High on the agenda of the BRICS nations and their partners is to establish “a unified currency or bolster bilateral trade agreements that bypass the dollar. These efforts aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollars…” reports Global Financial Digest

Trump has reacted to this by threatening 100% tariffs on imports from the BRICS nations. As President, Donald Trump’s plans to entrench his America First doctrine and the dollar’s hegemony will hobble plans for de-dollarisation of economies in the BRIC bloc as well as the emerging markets of the global south which remain vulnerable to tectonic shifts in the larger global economy.

This is something that could have repercussions for the Nigerian economy described by Cardoso as a “resource-intensive” country.

 

Toni Kan is a PR/Crisis Management expert and financial analyst.

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Absence Of Oba Otudeko, Bisi Onasanya, Others Stalls Arraignment Over N12.3Billion Fraud As Otudeko’s Lawyer Protests In Court

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The counsel for Oba Otudeko, Chairman of Honeywell Group, who is facing charges of a N12.3 billion fraud, appeared before a Federal High Court in Lagos on Monday to protest the charge.

Mr. Bode Olanipekun (SAN) informed the court that he was protesting because the charge had not been served on Otudeko or the two other individuals charged alongside him, the News Agency of Nigeria reports.

Olanipekun informed the court that, despite not being served with the charge, the defendants were shocked to learn about the planned arraignment through the media when the story broke last Thursday.

The 13-count charge was filed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) against Oba Otudeko, former Managing Director of FirstBank Plc. Olabisi Onasanya, and former Honeywell board member Soji Akintayo.

Olanipekun is the counsel for the three defendants.

They were charged alongside the company, Anchorage Leisure Ltd.

 

The EFCC alleges that the defendants obtained the sum under false pretenses.

 

According to the EFCC, the four committed the fraud in tranches of N5.2billion, N6.2billion, N6.150billion, N1.5billion and N500million, between 2013 and 2014 in Lagos.

 

The 13-count charge, filed by EFCC counsel, Bilikisu Buhari, on January 16, 2025, further claimed that the defendants used forged documents to deceive the bank.

Specifically, count 1 accused the defendants of conspiring “to obtain the sum of N12.3Billion from First Bank Limited on the pretence that the said sum represented credit facilities applied for by V-TECH DYNAMIC LINKS LIMITED and Stallion Nigeria Limited, which representation you know to be false.”

 

In Count 2, it was alleged that the defendants, on or about 26th day of November, 2013 in Lagos, “obtained the sum of N5.2 billion from First Bank Limited on the pretence that the said sum represented credit facilities applied for by V TECH DYNAMIC LINKS LIMITED which representation you know to be false.”

 

The 3rd count alleged that the defendants, between 2013 and 2014 in Lagos, obtained N6.2billion from First Bank Limited on the pretence that the said sum represented credit facilities applied for and disbursed to Stallion Nigeria Limited, which representation you know to be false.”

 

In the 4th count, they were accused of conspiring to spend the N6.15billion, out of the monies.

According to the Commission, the offences contravened Section 8(a) of Advance Fee Fraud and Other Fraud Related Offences Act 2006 and was punishable under Section 1(3) of the same Act.

Counts 5 reads: “That you, Chief Oba Otudeko, Stephen Olabisi Onasanya, Soji Akintayo and Anchorage Leisure Limited on or about 11th day of December, 2013 in Lagos, procured Honeywell Flour Mills Plc to retain the sum of N1.5 billion, which sum you reasonably ought to have known forms part of proceeds of your unlawful activities to wit: Obtaining by False Pretense and you thereby committed an offence contrary to Section 18(c), 15 (2) (d) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act, 2011 (as amended) and punishable under Section 15(3) of the same Act.”

Meanwhile, Otudeko had reportedly fled Nigeria ahead of his scheduled arraignment on fraud charges.

 

According to TheCable Newspaper, Otudeko’s exit from the country is linked to the mounting legal pressures and financial disputes he is facing.

The newspaper reported that the businessman left the country via one of the land borders.

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Loan controversy: Bisi Onasanya’s lawyer condemns media trial….Judge adjourns case to February 13

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In line with his resolve to defend himself and clear his name, Dr. Bisi Onasanya through his lawyer, Adeyinka Olumide-Fusika, SAN, at a session at the Federal High Court Lagos on Monday, January 20, 2025, demanded the service of proof of evidence and summons.

Onasanya, a chartered accountant and a former Group Managing Director of First Bank is defending himself against a controversial loan that allegedly occurred at First Bank 12 years ago. The retired banker is refuting the allegations alongside three others namely former Chairman of the bank, Chief Oba Otudeko, a former board member of Honeywell, Soji Akintayo, and a firm, Anchorage Leisure Ltd.

At a hearing at the Federal High Court in Lagos on Monday, Fusika condemned the media trial his client had been subjected to, saying he was not formally invited by the EFCC or served a notice of the charge.

He expressed surprise at seeing news stories in major newspapers linking Dr Onasanya to a trial on loan controversy during his time as First Bank Group Managing Director without prior notification.

“My Lord, it is concerning that my client has been unduly exposed to media trial without being formally served. This is a procedural anomaly that undermines his right to a fair hearing and personal dignity,” Olumide-Fusika said.

The prosecuting counsel, Rotimi Oyedepo, denied any involvement by the EFCC in the media coverage of the case.

He stated that the commission had not issued a press statement and suggested that journalists may have obtained information through other means.

“My Lord, we disassociate ourselves from any media reports,” Oyedepo said.

The EFCC also applied for an ex parte motion to issue a bench warrant for the defenders’ arrest and sought permission to serve them through substituted means, alleging they had evaded service.

Olumide-Fusika opposed the motion, arguing that his client had always been available and had not evaded service. Demonstrating his determination to clear his name, the senior lawyer prayed to the court to have the EFCC serve the charge and the proof of evidence in the open court.

“This application is unwarranted and speculative. My client has neither avoided service nor absented himself from this matter. The claims of the prosecution are baseless. Since I am here and my client is ready to go ahead with this case, I ask to be served the charge and the proof of evidence here in the court,” Olumide-Fusika argued.

Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke, who presided over the case, dismissed the EFCC’s motion for substituted service on Onasanya since he has accepted to be served in the open court.

The judge consequently ordered that the EFCC serve Olumide-Fusika the charge and proof of evidence in open court.

The EFCC complied with the directive, and Olumide-Fusika who confirmed the receipt of the document extracted a confirmation from the prosecution counsel that the proof of evidence submitted is exhaustive and there wouldn’t be an addendum. The defence counsel said EFCC’s confirmation should be on record, insisting that his client was ready to defend himself and clear his name.

Justice Aneke adjourned the case to February 13, 2025.

It will be recalled that Onasanya, through his Communication Advisor, Mr Michael Osunnuyi, had earlier dismissed allegations, describing the claims as baseless and an attempt to tarnish Onasanya’s stellar reputation for professionalism, integrity and humaneness.

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Abuja-Lagos Super Highway Project faces threat as two consortiums engage in battle for FG’s nod

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AEC Unity Network Limited, the officially recognised concessionaire for the Abuja-Lagos Super Highway and High-Speed Train projects, has denied any association with an entity known as AEC-Geofocus Consortium (Geofocus).

AEC Unity Network clarified that Geofocus has no role in the planning, financing, construction, or operation of the 470-kilometer superhighway and high-speed rail projects, which are part of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda to boost national infrastructure.

In a statement released on Sunday, the company emphasised that it is the sole concessionaire authorized by the Federal Government of Nigeria, having received approvals from the Federal Ministry of Works, the Federal Ministry of Finance, and the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC).

Barrister Ayodeji Ademola, legal consultant for AEC Unity Network, said in the statement that AEC-Geofocus has no basis whatsoever to make any claim in relation to the Super Highway project, having not been part of its conception from the onset.

In the statement, AEC Unity Network reaffirmed that it is the sole concessionaire authorised by the Federal Government of Nigeria to design, finance, construct, operate, and maintain the 470-kilometer superhighway and high-speed rail linking Abuja and Lagos.

According to the statement, the company’s approvals are from the Federal Ministry of Works, the Federal Ministry of Finance, and the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC).

The reaction by the AEC Unity Network may have been informed by media publications credited to one Engineer Mutiu Yinka Idris, who asserted that AEC-Geofocus was in charge of the project for the federal government.

Idris, who claimed to be Director of Operations for AEC-Geofocus, had in the publication described the company as a consortium of engineers, planners, and investors that had successfully attracted $16 billion from Middle Eastern investors, with additional interest from European financial institutions and the World Bank.

He had also claimed that the financial framework was designed to minimize government expenditure, safeguard public funds, and prevent cost overruns through an efficient risk-sharing mechanism.

Idris had assured stakeholders of a grand project flag-off before February 2025, reiterating AEC-Geofocus’ commitment to delivering world-class infrastructure.

“The $16 billion project will be led by AEC-Geofocus, a consortium of engineers, planners, and investors, and plans have been concluded to commence it by February this year, 2025,” Idris had asserted.

He said that the Lagos-Abuja corridor, spanning approximately 500 kilometers, will connect Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Kogi, and Niger states before reaching Abuja, under a design, Build, Finance, Operate, and Maintain (DBFOM) model.

But in its sharp reaction, AEC Unity Network expressed surprise at the emergence of AEC-Geofocus out of the blue to make claims on a project it was never part of.

Part of the statement read: “We emphatically state that AEC Unity Network Limited has no relationship whatsoever with AEC-Geofocus Consortium or Geofocus. Any claims made by Geofocus regarding involvement in the projects are ‘spurious and false.’”

“We categorically state that AEC Unity Network Limited has no relationship whatsoever with Engineer Mutiu Yinka Idris or Geofocus.”

“These fraudulent claims are completely at variance with our proposed infrastructure plans and are intended to confuse and defraud unsuspecting stakeholders,” the statement added.

The statement by Engineer Mutiu Yinka Idris, who claimed involvement in the projects on behalf of Geofocus in several media outlets and amplified on social media, is baseless and an attempt to mislead the public.

The company warned investors and the public to disregard any media advertisements or reports from Geofocus, describing them as unauthorized and misleading.

AEC Unity Network stated that its project is still in the planning stages, with no concurrent developments on the same corridor by any other entity.

To prevent confusion and potential fraud, AEC Unity Network urged local and foreign investors to verify information only through its official channels and avoid engaging with Geofocus on matters relating to the Abuja-Lagos Super Highway and High-Speed Train projects.

This infrastructure initiative, which includes a direct expressway and rail connection between Abuja and Lagos, is expected to enhance transportation efficiency and foster economic growth.

AEC Unity Network reiterated its commitment to transparency and professionalism, urging the public to engage only through its official channels for accurate information about the projects.

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