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Looking beyond CBN’s cocktail of policies to 2025 – Toni Kan

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Six months ago a friend I go on daily runs with took ill on a Monday evening. It was sudden and by the time I saw him hours later at the hospital, he was lying there very sick, very frail and hooked up to machines.

 

The diagnosis was sepsis and we were all surprised. The morning before he took ill, we had gone on a 6km run. That was 2km more than our usual but there was a reason. We had gone to a party on Saturday and some “damage” had been done. So that Monday morning we had agreed to run the “foolishness” out of our system.

 

Sepsis is a major killer in the UK and is described as “a life-threatening condition by The UK Sepsis Trust which says it “can lead to shock, multiple organ failure and even death if not recognised and treated promptly.”

 

Statistics from the NHS are more sobering. Sepsis “kills five people every hour and accounts for about 50,000 deaths per year in the UK alone.”

 

So, my friend was lucky to have “listened” to his body and gone to the A&E where he was prescribed a cocktail of drugs that included powerful antibiotics as well as hydrocortisone, vitamin C, thiamine and lots of intravenous fluids.

 

That incident came to mind as I read the Keynote Address delivered by Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria at the 59th Annual Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on November 29, 2024.

 

Nineteen pages long, it was expansive, insightful, comprehensive, wide-ranging, bold and visionary in acknowledging the myriad of issues they met on ground, the challenges encountered so far in fixing them and strategy for the future. It was like a Job Description and a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) rolled into one.

 

Reading through, the image that loomed before me was of my friend on that hospital bed. When we met in the morning, he was bubbly and rearing to go with none of us the wiser about the bacteria ravaging his system. By evening the bacteria had won and it would have been a different story if doctors had not given him that cocktail of medicines.

 

The financial system Yemi Cardoso and team met on ground was being ravaged by an unseen bacteria and leading to a system collapse. The prognosis was bad – high inflation, multiple exchange rates, unchecked subsidy and rampant arbitrage, lack of access to international capital markets, poor investor confidence, waning foreign portfolio inflows, declining exchange reserves and decreasing diaspora remittances, a huge FX backlog, excessive money supply growth at 13% annually, fiscal crisis from unprecedented Ways and Means advances to the FG of N22.7 trillion and many more.

 

Yemi Cardoso was like a doctor who came to the quick realization that urgent action was required to stem the tide and steer the financial ship to a safe port.

 

What he did, he told the CIBN, was attack with a cocktail of “targeted policies, transparent market operations, effective coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, and a commitment to rebuild trust.”

 

What did he think success would look like after this cocktail of policies has been implemented? Cardoso told his audience that what the CBN expects in 2025 and beyond is a regime that will see the CBN “stabilize the exchange rate, curb inflation, strengthen banks’ capital buffers, and foster an environment conducive to the success of both businesses and individuals.”

 

These are already happening and Olayemi Cardoso was not shy in pointing out areas where progress has been made.

 

External reserves which fell to $33.22bn in December 2023 have grown back to $40bn the highest level in 3 years and “the equivalent of eight months’ import cover.”

That is a reflection of rising investor confidence evident in the 72% growth in foreign portfolio inflows and increase in diaspora remittances from a monthly average of $300m to $600m with a monthly target of $1bn set by the CBN.

 

This is being buoyed by the integration of the Nigerian diaspora into our financial system by initiatives like the introduction of the non-resident BVN registration. At the time of writing this piece, news of an oversubscribed Eurobond issue of $2.2bn filtered out from the Debt Management Office (DMO).

 

The fiscal crisis from excessive Ways and Means which was the equivalent of almost 11% of our GDP in 2023 before Cardoso and team took over at the CBN has been ended with the backlog of over $7 billion in unfulfilled commitments cleared.

 

The FX market has been stabilized with a tightening contraction in the gap between the official and parallel markets and more sanity is expected with the take-off on December 2, 2024 of the electronic FX matching system. Analysts are already forecasting that the naira will end the year low.

 

A regime of transparency has led to regular and improved financial stability reports, balance of payments data, and FX market updates, data sharing, the launch of a new website and technology driven innovations intended to “strengthen the CBN’s credibility and public trust in our policies.”

 

Speaking at that dinner, Cardoso summarized his ultimate destination as “price and exchange rate stability, catalyze sustainable economic growth, and protect the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians.”

 

While all these are cause for cheer, challenges remain. The naira is still taking a beating something Cardoso has attributed to buyer’s desperation and a distorted view of the value of the naira relative to the greenback. This will hopefully be solved in 2025 and beyond by “the introduction of the electronic matching system” which “will correct these distortions by enhancing the price discovery process.”

 

Inflation remains a thorny issue at 33.88% despite efforts to “contain inflation and restore stability” by “raising the Monetary Policy Rate by 875 basis points to 27.5%”. The inflation target of 21.4% is yet to be achieved.

But Cardoso is upbeat: “Our tight monetary policy stance has altered the previous dire trajectory, and we expect a downward trend in 2025. Inflation remains unacceptably high, but the signs are encouraging, particularly given that the full effects of monetary policy typically take 6-9 months to impact the consumer sector.”

 

To conclude one must ask whether Cardoso and his team have factored in the coming of Donald Trump into their plans for 2025. As Cardoso noted in his keynote, the pandemic, global geopolitical tensions and inflation have had a deleterious effect on emerging markets in the form of “withdrawal of capital flows” thus “creating new challenges for economies like ours.”

 

Speaking further he noted that “Major central banks are gradually easing their monetary conditions and this shift is slowly reopening access to international capital markets for emerging economies.”

 

But for how long? Recent comments from Donald Trump in reaction to plans for de-dollarisation by the BRICS nations deserve attention from the CBN as the apex bank looks to the future.

 

This is important because in October this year, Nigeria formalized its romance with the BRICS bloc by becoming a partner as reported by The Punch. “BRICS has officially expanded its alliance, adding 13 new nations as partner countries, though not as full members…The countries are Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.”

 

High on the agenda of the BRICS nations and their partners is to establish “a unified currency or bolster bilateral trade agreements that bypass the dollar. These efforts aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollars…” reports Global Financial Digest

Trump has reacted to this by threatening 100% tariffs on imports from the BRICS nations. As President, Donald Trump’s plans to entrench his America First doctrine and the dollar’s hegemony will hobble plans for de-dollarisation of economies in the BRIC bloc as well as the emerging markets of the global south which remain vulnerable to tectonic shifts in the larger global economy.

This is something that could have repercussions for the Nigerian economy described by Cardoso as a “resource-intensive” country.

 

Toni Kan is a PR/Crisis Management expert and financial analyst.

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AIR PEACE ADDRESSES IN-FLIGHT THEFT INCIDENT ON FLIGHT P47190

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We confirm an incident of in-flight theft onboard Flight P47190 on February 19, 2025. The airline reiterates its unwavering commitment to passenger safety and security and has taken decisive action in response to the situation.

During the flight, a passenger was found in possession of a missing item following a thorough search conducted upon landing at Port Harcourt International Airport (PHC). The suspect was subsequently handed over to the airport police for further investigation and necessary action.

Air Peace is deeply concerned by the rising trend of in-flight thefts observed in recent weeks. To curb this menace, the airline is implementing enhanced surveillance measures onboard its flights. Cabin crew members have been advised to heighten their vigilance throughout the journey, and in-flight announcements will be intensified to sensitize passengers on the importance of securing their belongings and reporting any suspicious activities immediately.

Furthermore, the airline is taking a firm stance against such criminal acts by recommending the blacklisting of the identified suspect, reinforcing its zero-tolerance policy for any misconduct that compromises the safety and comfort of passengers.

Air Peace remains committed to delivering a safe, secure, and world-class travel experience for all passengers. The airline urges the public to cooperate with its security protocols and report any suspicious behaviour to ensure a seamless and enjoyable journey for everyone.

 

 

SIGNED

Dr. Ejike Ndiulo

Head, Corporate Communications

Air Peace Limited

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Court orders final forfeiture of Emefiele’s $4.7m, N830m, properties

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A federal high court in Lagos has ordered the permanent forfeiture of $4.7 million, N830 million, and properties linked to Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

 

Yellim Bogoro, the presiding judge, granted the final forfeiture application brought by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), in a judgement delivered on Friday.

 

The funds, now forfeited to the federal government, were held in First Bank, Titan Trust Bank, and Zenith Bank accounts managed by individuals and entities including Omoile Anita Joy, Deep Blue Energy Service Limited, Exactquote Bureau De Change Ltd, Lipam Investment Services Limited, Tatler Services Limited, Rosajul Global Resources Ltd, and TIL Communication Nigeria Ltd.

 

 

Properties affected by the interim forfeiture include 94 units of an 11-floor building under construction at 2 Otunba Elegushi 2nd Avenue, Ikoyi, Lagos; AM Plaza, an 11-floor office space on Otunba Adedoyin Crescent, Lekki Peninsula Scheme 1, Lagos; Imore Industrial Park 1 on Esa Street, Imoore Land, Amuwo Odofin LGA, Lagos; Mitrewood and Tatler Warehouse (Furniture Plant at Bogije) near Elemoro, Owolomi Village, Ibeju-Lekki LGA, Lagos; and two properties purchased from Chevron Nigeria, located in Lakes Estate, Lekki, Lagos.

 

 

Additional properties include a plot at Lekki Foreshore Estate Scheme, Foreshore Estate, Eti-Osa, LGA; an estate at 100 Cottonwood Coppel Texas Drive, Coppel, Texas, owned by Lipam Investment Services; land at 1 Bunmi Owulude Street, Lekki Phase 1, Lagos; and a property at 8 Bayo Kuku Road, Ikoyi, Lagos.

 

Justice Bogoro held that all these properties and funds are proceeds of unlawful activities which are bound to be forfeited to the Federal Government of Nigeria.

 

 

The judge held: “I find that the activities of the respondents here were unlawful. Why should they have a problem of dollars immediately Godwin Emefiele left CBN as a governor of the Bank and salary could not be made?

 

“I hold that they are not legitimate business activities.

 

“I hold that Anita Omoile is a close crony of the former CBN governor Godwin Emefiele who has been given undue influence to unlawfully sway dollars from CBN.

 

 

Consequently, I find that all the monies and properties in the schedule are finally forfeited to the Federal Government of Nigeria.”

 

The EFCC through its counsel Rotimi Oyedepo SAN had cited Section 17 of the Advance Fee Fraud and Other Fraud Related Offences Act, 2006, and Section 44(2)(b) of the Nigerian Constitution in its application, seeking an interim forfeiture on the grounds that the funds and properties were suspected to be proceeds of unlawful activities.

 

Justice Bogoro, finding merit in the EFCC’s application, ordered the interim forfeiture and mandated the publication of the order in a national newspaper.

 

 

Following the failure of the defendants or anyone else to prove that the funds legitimately belonged to them, the judge then made the interim order permanent.

 

Today’s order is another testament to the EFCC’s commendable assets recovery and anti-corruption efforts under its Executive Chairman Mr Ola Olukoyede.

 

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Halt campaign against NNPC’s progress

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By: Emmanuel Akanni

 

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has again been the target of a deliberate misinformation campaign aimed at tarnishing its reputation and undermining the remarkable strides it has made recently.

 

 

After failing to discredit the accomplishments of the Mele Kyari-led management—most notably the revitalisation of the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery, which had been non-operational for over 30 years, and the successful restreaming of the Warri Refining & Petrochemicals Company on December 30, 2024—critics have turned to spreading false claims about the quality of fuel supplied by NNPC Ltd.

 

In a recent viral video, a content creator claimed to have bought a litre of Dangote petrol from the MRS filling station in Lagos at N925 and another litre of PMS from an NNPC station at N945. The video showed two new generators running the fuel, and according to him, the generator running the NNPCL fuel stopped after 17 minutes, while the Dangote petrol lasted for 33 minutes.

 

 

Of course, the controversial video was sponsored to damage the reputation of NNPC Ltd, having recorded major milestones under Kyari. The video, which was done in bad faith, portrayed the NNPC Ltd. as a supplier of substandard fuel, an allegation too weighty to be overlooked.

 

Dismissing the claims, Olufemi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer at the NNPC Ltd., said, “The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd strongly refutes the false and misleading allegations made in a viral video circulating online, which claims that NNPC fuel does not last. This assertion is baseless and entirely unfounded, originating from unverified and amateur research that lacks credibility, accuracy, and professional oversight.”

 

 

The NNPC Ltd reaffirmed that its fuel was carefully formulated with one of the best compositions, ensuring optimal efficiency, durability, and environmental sustainability for consumers.

 

 

“Furthermore, it is important to emphasize that a significant percentage of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) sold at NNPC retail stations in Lagos—where this deceptive video was created—is sourced from the Dangote Refinery, a strategic partner in promoting local production and energy security. Dangote Refinery adheres to strict industry standards, guaranteeing the quality of petroleum products supplied to our consumers,” NNPC Ltd. added.

 

According to Soneye, the misleading video was another desperate attempt by economic saboteurs to misinform the public and tarnish NNPC Ltd’s reputation.

 

 

Vowing that the NNPC would no longer tolerate malicious and deliberate misinformation designed to undermine its operations and mislead Nigerians, the company warned of dire legal consequences for the merchants of misinformation and campaigners of calumny against it.

 

 

“Henceforth, NNPC Ltd will take firm legal action against individuals or groups who intentionally spread falsehoods about our brand and operations. Those engaged in such malicious activities will be held fully accountable under the law,” Soneye added.

 

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), after thorough testing, condemned the amateurish video and submitted that the fuel supplied by NNPC  Ltd. meets the highest industry standards.

 

 

“We urge content creators not to joke with sensitive matters that can collapse the economy,” said Billy Gillis-Harry, the PETROAN president.

 

The viral video lacks scientific proof, inappropriate, offensive and unethical. The content creator should have opted for laboratory analysis and not a social media stunt aimed at discrediting a particular brand against the other. It was a bad comparative and combative advertising dangerous to both brands.

 

The sustained campaign to demarket the NNPC Ltd started after the company, under Kyari’s sound leadership, reopened the Old Port Harcourt Refinery on Tuesday, November 26, 2024, apparently to the disappointment of forces against the revival of the country’s four refineries.

 

Attempts by sceptics to rubbish the achievement recorded with the Port Harcourt refinery were roundly repudiated by the NNPCL, workers at the refinery, experts, and delegates from the Presidency, Nigeria Labour Congress, Trade Union Congress, Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, and Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers. However, traducers will stop at nothing to carry out their nefarious agenda.

 

Let it be known that those fabricating lies to destroy NNPC’s reputation are fighting a lost war. Nobody can demarket a company that is doing well and consistently breaking new ground. From what was believed to be a cesspool of corruption to an organisation guided by sound management, transparency and corporate governance, Kyari and his team are doing a good job. The NNPC Ltd remains steadfast in its mission to ensure fuel availability, affordability, and quality for all Nigerians while maintaining global industry standards.

 

Of course, the coming of the $23 billion Dangote Refinery has changed the Nigerian downstream landscape igniting competition and a recent price war; such development is welcome and the expectation is that demand and supply forces would continue to drive the market. It is, however, important to keep the competition healthy and virile. No need to demarket one another. The downstream market should be a level playing field for all.

 

Recall that Kyari played a pivotal role in supporting the Dangote Refinery by securing a $1 billion loan backed by NNPC’s crude reserves. The strategic move not only addressed liquidity challenges but also ensured the successful completion of Dangote Refinery.

 

This, according to NNPC Ltd., underscores Kyari’s commitment to fostering public-private partnerships that deliver long-term value to the nation.

 

The NNPCL boss was said to have considered the investment in the Dangote Refinery as a strategic move aimed at strengthening domestic fuel supply.

 

“A strategic decision to secure a $1 billion loan backed by NNPC’s crude was instrumental in supporting the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery during liquidity challenges, paving the way for the establishment of Nigeria’s first private refinery. This initiative underscores NNPC’s dedication to fostering public-private partnerships that drive national development,” Soneye, the NNPC spokesman, had said at a recent Energy Relations Stakeholder Engagement in Abuja.

 

The Kyari-must-go campaigners have also joined the smear campaign against NNPC Ltd., sponsoring opinion pieces and media publications in an attempt to undermine the company’s progress. However, no amount of negative rhetoric can diminish the achievements NNPC Ltd. has made under Kyari’s leadership.

 

Apart from the refineries, NNPC Ltd. under Kyari declared N3.297 trillion profit for the 2023 financial year, the highest in its 46-year history and an increase of over N700 billion (28%) when compared to the 2022 profit of N2.548 trillion. This, of course, has been credited to the stringent financial management strategies deployed by Kyari and his team.

 

In 2021, NNPC declared profit in its operations for the first time.  From a loss position of N803 billion in 2018, it reduced the loss further down to N1.7 billion in 2019.

 

However, in 2020, it posted its ‘first-ever’ profit of N287 billion, then in 2021, it recorded an N674.1 billion profit and in 2022, the profit grew to N2.548, an unprecedented achievement in its financial performance. In a company where profitability was like an anathema, Kyari has bucked the trend and changed the narrative by posting profit year-on-year.

 

Efforts to discredit NNPC Ltd. are futile in the face of the company’s impressive performance. While constructive criticism is welcomed, malicious campaigns to harm the company’s reputation are unacceptable. NNPC Ltd. should continue to fight against such attacks and stand firm in its commitment to serving the nation.

 

Emmanuel Akanni, an energy analyst, writes from Lagos.

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