Connect with us

News and Report

Why is Yemi Cardoso so focused on the MPR? – Toni Kan

Published

on

 

Yemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria was guest of the Harvard Club of Nigeria in Lagos on Friday October 4th, 2024.

In speaking to the topic – “Leadership in Challenging Times: Restoring Credibility, Building Trust, and Containing Inflation”, he referenced the raising of the MPR from 18.45% in February 2024 a few months after he assumed office to the current level of 27.25% on September 24th, 2024.

According to him , he told his audience that “Our decision to raise the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% was a bold move. Higher interest rates, while painful for borrowers, are necessary to curb excess money in circulation and control inflation. Leadership is about making hard choices to secure long-term stability over short-term comfort in moments like these.”

Reading that portion of the report from his interaction with the Harvard Club of Nigeria Yemi Cardoso’s comments about the MPR, interest rates and inflation took me many years back to when I was a Deputy Manager in the Research and Economic Intelligence Department of Zenith Bank.

In that role, the bulk of my work was routine; stock and money market monitoring and analysis as well as analysis of foreign exchange transactions and trends.

But aside from data collection and trend analysis I did some writing; producing the Zenith Economic Quarterly and analyzing feasibility studies for new businesses. It was from analyzing feasibility studies that I gained some unique insights about setting up a business and the disposition of Nigerian entrepreneurs to banks and the loans they obtain from banks. It was there I learnt about interest rates and Nigerian businesses. But I will come to that shortly.

Back then at Zenith, I recall that when I started compiling money market reports, the reference for interest rates was something called the Minimum Rediscount Rate (MRR). It was replaced on December 4, 2006 with the now popular Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).

CBN notedThe at that time that “The MPR would be the main instrument of the new monetary policy framework and will determine the lower and upper band of the CBN standing facility and is expected to have the capability of acting as the nominal anchor for other rates.” That lower and upper band is what we now know as the asymmetric corridors.

The MPR is thereforea benchmark that determines the interest rate at which banks lend to their customers. Raising or lowering the MPR also has an effect on inflation by controlling the amount of money in circulation. This is why Yemi Cardoso has made it a key aspect of his inflation control agenda.

Since taking office, the incumbent CBN governor has raised the MPR 5 times.

294th Monetary Policy Committee Press BriefingThese increases have been anchored on what he described at the as underscoring “the CBN’s commitment to the price stability mandate and the need to urgently bring inflation under control to ensure that the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians is restored in the short to medium term.”

With each raise, financial analysts and commentators have expressed their opinions. While varied, the common denominator has been the fact that a high interest rate which is correlated with a high MPR will impact the borrowing costs for businesses and individuals.

The point has also been made that the negative impact on borrowing for investment and consumption purposes could slow down economic activitybut what they do not say as loudly is that a high MPR rate means that those who put their money in savings deposits or TBs will get more bang for their buck and even foreign investors would be attracted by higher rates of return.

Basic economics tells us that inflation occurs when a few things happen, top of which is rising prices and too much money chasing too few goods. Others include, a rise in the cost of producing goods and services, demand exceeding supply, wages rising leading to increased purchasing power, natural disasters impacting farming or production, conflicts disrupting supply lines or when tax cuts lead to higher purchasing power.

Almost all of these have happened since 2023 and led to an increase in headline inflation something Cardoso also noted at that MPC briefing. In his words “members note the continued rise in headline inflation driven largely by food prices because of supply shortages and high cost of logistics and distribution.”

The last bit was, of course, a euphemism for high transport costs exacerbated by the increase in the fuel price.

So, curbing borrowing which leads to more money in circulation is clearly a step in the right direction.

While it is true that a high interest rate will discourage borrowing and potentially impact productive activities, the point should also be stressed that all over the world, the interest rate and inflation rate are connected because central bankers realize that the interest rate should usually be higher than the rate of inflation if prices are to stay stable which is what Yemi Cardoso is trying to do – keep prices stable and low and restore the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians who are the most impacted.

StatistaA quick look at statistics from will show us a trend for inflation vs interest rates for a few countries as at July 2024:

Australia, inflation rate of 3.5% and interest rate of 4.35%

Brazil: inflation rate of 4.5% and interest rate of 9.5%

Canada: inflation rate of 2.5% and interest rate of 4.5%

Russia: inflation rate of 9.1% and interest rate of 16%

UK: inflation rate of 2.2% and interest rate of 5.25%

US: inflation rate of 2.9% and interest rate of 5.38%

Now, if central banks the world over have realised that interest rates must be higher than the inflation rate why do we scream blue murder each time the MPC raises the MPR?

The answer I believe is because we are looking at high double digits. Back in the mid noughties when I worked at Zenith bank interest rates were around 12 and 13% and I remember that fixed deposits used to attract less than 10% returns. So, if the MPR had been moved by 200 basis points from 12.75 to 14.75% there would be not so much hoopla.

MPC Meeting of February 14, 2006To underline this point, let us go back to 2006. Resolutions from the included: “Resolved to work towards maintaining single digit (core) inflation… MRR will be maintained at 13% in line with the anti-inflation stance of the MPC.” This shows that the resort to MRR or MPR as an inflation monitoring tool is historic and pre-dated Cardoso and his team who have set an inflation target of 21.4% in the short term.

Another point that needs to be made is that if interest rates remain lower than the rate of inflation in an inflationary environment such as we have presently, it could be an invitation to financial rascality where loans are obtained and used for what they were not intended for.

And that point leads me back to my days as a researcher at Zenith bank. Back then, in analyzing and providing opinions on feasibility studies, I was often mystified when I read the financials presented by start-ups seeking loans. A service oriented business would, for instance, apply for N60m take off loan and present line items for its sunk costs showing – business registration, legal, rent, office equipment, salaries and wages etc. But then you would often discover that N25m had been allotted to be used for “buying cars for marketing.”

My boss back then always told me that such depreciating assets must never be allotted more than 20%!

The issue was that in those days, with interest rate at about 10%, the temptation to be imprudent was high. This is what Yemi Cardoso is fighting to stop in an era of high inflation. Whatever is borrowed now must be applied judiciously to productive activity.

So, do we expect the MPR to go higher? My view is that it should. The MPR must correlate in some particular with the rate of inflation and as the CBN governor noted at that Harvard Club event “in the face of economic challenges, it is imperative to focus on core objectives—restoring the credibility of the institution, building trust in the financial system, and, most critically, containing inflation. These are not just strategic goals; they are foundational to any meaningful recovery.”

previous Intervention in concluding, I must return to a submission I made in a ; for the economy to grow and the gains become apparent in the medium to long term, there must be a convergence of both monetary and fiscal policies? Monetary policy is not a silver bullet even though it seems to be working with headline inflation dropping and the gap between the official and parallel markets contracting. Interesting days lie ahead.

 

 

**Toni Kan is a PR expert and financial analyst.

News and Report

Christmas, Cash Scarcity and Attacks against CBN’s Proactive Stance – Toni Kan

Published

on

By

 

Let us look at a few figures……..

Nigeria’s population is put at a little over 200 million people while the UK population is about 68 million. This means that the Nigerian population is about three (3) times that of the UK.

As at June 2023, the UK banking system had about 49,421 Automatic Teller Machines and almost 2.3 million Point of Sales Terminals.

By contrast, the Nigerian banking system had a little over 22,600 ATMS according to TechCabal and is projected to reach 29,000 by 2029 according to Statista. Conversely, Nigeria boasted 1,665,664 POS terminals as at December 2022. Meanwhile, figures attributed to Inlaks, which is described as Nigeria’s biggest ATM operator, suggest that Nigeria needs at least 60,000 ATM machines to serve its population of over 200 million.

Where is all this going? Well to borrow a phrase from the comedian, Jeff Foxworthy; hold my beer, sir!

Those who know me well know what my favourite Igbo proverb is. It goes something like this in translation – “the disease that gives you warning, does not kill you!” It is a proverb that underlines the imperative of proactivity, what the Igbo people might call igba mbo.

So, I was really pleased when I read that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was taking a proactive step to ensure that there is no cash scarcity this Christmas.

Nigerians love cash and that love can become obsessive and reach fever pitch at festive periods. Have you been to Abeokuta during Ojude Oba? Or to Kano during the Durbar? Or Onitsha during Ofala? Those are regional festivities. So, you can imagine what happens at Christmas!

All efforts at driving a cashless policy and economy seem to collapse when festivities come around the corner and this year, the CBN was quick to take proactive action weeks before the festivities reach fever pitch. But the apex bank’s interventions seem to be having unintended consequences even though as at the time of writing this, the apex bank had put out three (3) different circulars and one press release around the issue.

First, is a not-so-surprising pushback from the banks and then a seeming lack of understanding by the general public no thanks to rampant mis-information.

The issue of cash scarcity around the Christmas period worsened under the sway of Godwin Emefiele at the CBN. The fall-out from the disastrous naira redesign he superintended over at the apex bank continues to haunt our banking vaults but Olayemi Cardoso and team are focused on making sure we turn that dark corner.

Let us begin with the first circular dated November 29, 2024: “Cash Availability Over the Counter in Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and Automated Teller Machines (ATMs).” The circular had two sections: DMBs were directed to ensure efficient cash disbursement to customers Over the Counter (OTC) with the CBN insisting that it will enforce the directive and ensure compliance.

Secondly, members of the general public were encouraged to report instances where they are unable to get cash Over the Counter or through ATMs. The CBN ended with a list of 37 email addresses and phone numbers across the 36 states and FCT for reporting issues.

On paper, it looked like Nigerians and the cash worries were all sorted this Christmas but it didn’t take time for the expected pushback to occur. News reports began to circulate of long queues at banks and of ATMs struggling to dispense more than N10,000. “NAN reports that long queues have emerged at ATM stands around the city as residents struggle to have access to cash…Meanwhile POS operators are currently taking advantage of the situation to demand exorbitant charges on transactions.”

While Nigerians were still trying to make sense of the reason behind the long queues, another report had an official of the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance, and Financial Institutions (ASBIFI) pointing fingers. According to the report, “ASSBIFI President, Olusoji Oluwole, told the Punch that “Banks have only two sources of cash: the CBN and retailers. The CBN has not met banks’ demands, and retailers often sell cash for profit, making it harder for banks to access funds.”

As if in response to the charge, the apex bank responded “with their full chest” as we say on social media with a December 13, 2024 circular – Updated Penalty on Inappropriate Cash Disbursement Practices by Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in which it condemned the “illicit flow of mint banknotes to currency hawkers and other unscrupulous economic agents that commodify naira bank notes thus impeding efficient and effective cash distribution to banks’ customers and general public.”

Giving bite to the circular the CBN said any bank found culpable of “facilitating, aiding or abetting, by direct actions or inactions, illicit flow of mint banknotes” would be fined N150m and then hit with the full weight of the relevant provisions of BOFIA 2020.

This time no pointing fingers were seen but the CBN was not done. Eager to completely squelch rumours around “the validity or lack thereof of the old ₦1000, ₦500, and ₦200 banknotes” the refusal of which was contributing to the long queues, the CBN issued a press release shutting it down: “The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has observed the misinformation regarding the validity of the old ₦1000, ₦500, and ₦200 banknotes currently in circulation….the CBN wishes to reiterate that the subsisting Supreme Court ruling granted on November 29, 2023, permits the concurrent circulation of all versions of the ₦1000, ₦500, and ₦200 denominations of the Naira indefinitely.”

The third circular from the CBN which it said was in line with its “ongoing efforts to advance a cash-less economy” seems to have hit a raw nerve among Nigerians who, as we have already noted, love their cash even though it is now an offence to spray the naira.

News outlets also seemed to also get it wrong. The CBN circular of December 17, 2024 did not put a limit on how much cash you and I can withdraw from banks. The limits imposed in the circular titled – CIRCULAR ON CASH-OUT LIMITS FOR AGENT BANKING TRANSACTIONS – are “for agency banking operations” and as reported by TheCable is among interventions intended to address “identified challenges, combat fraud and establish uniform operational standards across the industry.”

Now, can I have my beer back as I attempt to outline how easily well-intentioned policies are rubbished by that euphemistically named malady known as the “Nigerian factor”.

The ASBIFI official was quick to point fingers even though simple logic can show that Over the Counter cash scarcity and at ATMs has little to do with the CBN or its cash distribution operations but with our Nigerian any-how-ness.

Let’s consider this. How is it that banks cannot fill up 22,600 ATMS, most of which are within or in close proximity to their branches but can afford to give cash to 1.6m PS operators? Doesn’t this seem to suggest that someone is out to make sure that the ATMs don’t have cash while the PoS operators continue to make a killing?

And why does it seem right that Nigerians should continue to pay between N250 and N400 per N10,000 withdrawals to PoS operators when ATM charges are far lower at N35 and only after you have made multiple withdrawals from other bank ATMs?

Oh, bankers have said ATMs are difficult to maintain on account of several factors and this takes us back to the figures we shared from the UK. Of the 49,421 ATMs in the UK, “78% were free to use” during the period under reference. So, why do we always talk about maintenance when it comes to Nigeria? Imagine if we paid N10 per ATM transaction, wouldn’t that be better than paying N250 to a PoS operator for every N10,000 withdrawn?

And for context, in 2014, data on various e-payment channels indicated that Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) remained the most patronised payment mode in Nigeria accounting for 89.7% of all electronic transactions with PoS transactions accounting for just 4.58 per cent. Today, the reverse is the case and the question to ask remains; what changed? The answer has something to do with financial inclusion but that is a topic for another day.

As you ponder that poser, ask yourself why is it always difficult to get mint bank notes over the counter in the banks meanwhile, step into any event center and you will see some hawker waving bright new notes in your face. Surely, they don’t get those notes from the CBN.

When the CBN referenced the Supreme Court ruling granted on November 29, 2023 to the effect that the old notes are still legal tender, their X Formerly Twitter page was filled with bile. But what many are failing to contend with is that the current leadership is only trying to make sure the mess they inherited doesn’t get worse.

As we prepare for Christmas and the New Year the advice is simple; go to your bank and ask for your money or withdraw from the ATMs and if you suspect any funny business, email or call the hotlines provided by the CBN.

Say no to any-how-ness this yuletide.

 

Toni Kan is a PR expret and financial analyst.

 

 

 

Continue Reading

News and Report

Aviation Minister Leads Delta APC Leadership To National Chairman, Advocates Unity Ahead of 2027 Elections

Published

on

By

 

The Honourable Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Olorogun Festus Keyamo SAN, today, led the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Delta State, to the National Chairman of the APC, His Excellency Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, at the APC National Headquarters in Abuja.

 

During the meeting, the Delta APC leaders briefed the National Chairman on the current state of the party in the state and the ongoing efforts to reconcile party members. They presented the report of the Reconciliation Committee, which has been approved by the Delta State APC State Working Committee (SWC) and earlier submitted to the National Chairman.

The delegation emphasized the importance of collaboration, stating that the era of a one-man leadership style in Delta APC is over. They reaffirmed their collective commitment to working as a united team to reposition the party and strengthen its prospects ahead of the 2027 general elections. This new direction was evident in the composition of the high-powered delegation that visited the National Chairman.

 

In his response, the National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, commended the Delta APC leadership for their efforts to foster unity and ensure the party’s victory in future elections. He assured them of his commitment to work with Delta APC leaders, including those absent from the meeting, to build a united and formidable front. During the meeting, Dr. Ganduje also spoke with Delta State APC Chairman, Elder Omeni Sobotie, who was unavoidably absent due to health reasons, and wished him a swift recovery following his recent surgery.

 

The delegation to the meeting comprised prominent leaders of the Delta APC, including: Olorogun O’tega Emerhor, OON-Founding Leader of APC in Delta State,

Elder Godsday Orubebe- Former Minister,

Senator Ede Dafinone,

Senator Joel Thomas-Onowakpo,

Rev. Francis Waive- Member, House of Representatives and

Hon. Victor Ochei-former Speaker, Delta State House of Assembly.

The meeting was concluded with a renewed sense of purpose among the Delta APC leaders and a shared commitment to repositioning the party for electoral success in 2027.

 

 

Continue Reading

News and Report

Just In: Alleged N110.4billion Money Laundering: Yahaya Bello Begs Court: Spare me Landed Property in Maitama for Bail.

Published

on

By

 

A former governor of Kogi State, Mr. Yahaya Bello has pleaded with Justice Maryann Anenih of the Federal High Court sitting in Abuja to spare him the possession of a landed property in the Maitama district of Abuja as one of the conditions for bail.

 

Details later…

Continue Reading

Trending